Bloodbath: The Life-Threatening Crisis Facing Ontario's Public Colleges
Ontario's Public Colleges are being bled dry as a result of the federal government's sudden international student cuts. How did we get here, and what can be done to save our public colleges?
Bloodbath
Since the federal government announced its second round of study permit cuts, we’ve witnessed nothing short of a bloodbath.
Centennial College just announced it would cut 49 full-time programs. Algonquin College shuttered its campus in Perth. Sheridan College eliminated 40 programs. Seneca College closed its Markham campus. Mohawk College let go 20% of its admin staff and killed 16 programs. And that’s just the public colleges — nearly half of all universities in Ontario are running double digit deficits.
The source of these cancellations and cuts? Huge drops in international student enrolments.
According to the latest from Stats Canada, Ottawa issued 45% fewer new study permits in 2024, a far higher cut than what the feds had originally planned (target = 35%). And that drop in international enrolments has hit none harder than Ontario public colleges.
Bled Dry: Ontario’s Public Colleges
Last October, Global News reported that Ontario’s public colleges were reporting a 50% drop in international student enrolments. According to Marketa Evans, President and CEO of Colleges Ontario,
“In September of this past year, the international student enrolment at Ontario colleges is about half of what it was in September of last year”.
Unfortunately, things will only get worse…for now. The federal cap is set to tighten in 2025: Canada will only issue 437,000 study permits, a 10% drop from the 485,000 total study permits allowed in 2024.
But why is this so devastating for colleges? Well, we need to look at where colleges are getting their revenue from — to better understand why.
A Closer Look
Below shows Stats Canada data on the different sources of revenue for Ontario public colleges.
Now, here’s what this looks like most recently (in 2022/23)….
…compared to what it looked like back in 2015/16:
What Does the Money Tell Us
A) Provincial Funding Down
When comparing the past two charts, you’ll notice right away that the slice of Provincial funding has dramatically decreased, having been cut nearly in half since 2015. The largest, most stable source of income for colleges for years…. now doesn’t even account for a quarter of its total funding.
B) Tuition Revenues Up
As the Province of Ontario slowly cut down transfers to its public colleges, this forced colleges to look for alternative sources of income: the most dominant being Tuition Fees, which now represents the single largest source of revenue for colleges.
C) As Provincial Funding Went Down….Tuition Went Up
Here’s a better look at how those trends changed in the past decade, when we compare Fees, Federal, and Provincial revenues.
You’ll notice the inverse trends — where the steady decline in provincial funding was steadily replaced by tuition revenues — as colleges scrambled to replace lost income. Also note that federal funding to public colleges represents hardly any relief to public colleges (since colleges generally don’t qualify for many federal programs, including most Tri-Council funding).
As mentioned, provincial dollars account for less than a quarter of total revenue for Ontario public colleges, down an incredible 22 percentage points in just a decade.
D) Provincial Funding Has Been Stagnant…For A Decade
When we really drill down, provincial transfers to Ontario public colleges have been stagnant pretty much for an entire decade.
This is really concerning, given the increasingly intense challenges college students have had to face over the past decade: out-of-control housing rents, skyrocketing grocery prices, and tuition that has jumped 226% (see below).
Of course, much of the blame for hiking international student fees gets heaped on public colleges in general, but it’s important to note that Ontario’s public colleges have been incredibly resourceful in exploring other revenue streams.
Below shows the growth in different revenue streams over a 10 year period, showing that investments made by public colleges (eg Conestoga purchasing properties to expand student housing options) has by far outperformed every other category, including tuition fees.
Who’s Really to Blame?
It’s a terrible mess, and it’s unlikely we’ll be able to stop the bleeding anytime soon. As Alex Usher warns, there’s carnage ahead.
Who then really is the culprit in this situation? And perhaps more importantly — how do we ensure that Canada’s post-secondary sector — especially Ontario’s public colleges — survives this crisis?
That’s a big question that deserves its own follow up. So I’ll be following up with Part 2.
Stay tuned!