Overwatch - What are Canada's Top 5 Pollsters Saying about the Federal Election?

Here's what Canada's top 5 pollsters are saying about the federal election

A lot has been made of the latest changes in federal polling this week. In this post, I’ll cover what the top 5 pollsters are saying, adding a few interesting insights they reveal.

What’s the Latest?

It can be a bit confusing to track all the things news outlets keep saying about the latest polls. Here’s a quick snapshot from Canada’s top 5 pollsters ( Abacus Data, Angus Reid Institute, Ekos, Ipsos, and Nanos) — as of 13 April 2025.

Want to point out a few common trends:

• Liberals lead across all polls

• Conservatives behind Liberals, from as much as 14 points (Ipsos) to as little as 4 points (Abacus Data)

• NDP continue to slowly bleed votes (since earlier polls in April)

• Bloc and Greens remain relatively steady

With that out of the way, let’s look at each pollster, and some interesting insights each offer.

1) Abacus Data

Abacus Data is a Canadian pollster based in Ottawa that has been in operation since 2010. Their latest poll (held April 7-10) found that the Liberals (42%, no change) hold a 4 point lead over the Conservatives (38%, up 2 points), with support for the NDP (9%, down 2 points), Bloc (6%, up 1 point), and Greens (2%, no change) relatively stable.

An interesting insight revealed that leadership perceptions continued to trend, with Canadian respondents favouring Carney over Poilievre as Canada’s top leader across a wide group of areas, including standing up to Trump (as shown below)

2) Angus Reid Institute

Angus Reid Institute was founded in 2014 as a not-for-profit organization dedicated to the advancing public opinion research in Canada on key issues.

Their latest poll (April 7) shows a 10 point Liberal lead over the Conservatives.

What’s interesting is how vote intension has shifted since the start of 2025, showing that only the Liberals have managed a steady increase in voter support, compared with all other parties.

Even more interestingly, Canadians are increasingly locking in their votes. You’ll not how patterns rapidly shifted on March 24 — the week the federal election was called.

3) Ekos

Ekos (founded in 1980) is Canadian polling firm head-quartered in Ottawa. Their latest poll dropped on 11 April, suggesting that the Liberals maintain a 12.5 lead over the Conservatives.

An interesting insight is that this poll seems to show gaps widening across gender and age groups. While both Liberals and Conservatives poll closely amongst men, for women, there is a huge divide in favour of the Liberals.

Similarly, as you go up the age brackets, Liberal support grows, while the gap tightens with Conservatives amongst the Gen X crowd (ie. 35-49 years old).

4) Ipsos

Ipsos, a multi-national pollster (HQ in Paris, France), announced its latest poll yesterday — showing the Liberals (46%, up 2 points) with a double-digit lead over the Conservatives (34%, down 4 points). Ipsos further showed that the Liberals would score a majority government (over 170 seats) if election day was today.

The interesting insight to note is that Mark Carney is viewed as the best candidate for Prime Minister (45%, up 1 point from last week), with just under a third (32%, down 1 point) for Poilievre, followed by 12% for Jagmeet Singh (up 4 points).

5) Nanos

Our last pollster, Nanos Research, is a Canadian research and public opinion firm that started in 1987 as something of a game changer. Nanos was the first company to launch a publicly-available daily tracker, the first-of-its-kind, for Canadians to follow federal elections.

Their latest poll (as of 11 April) found that the Liberals hold a six point lead over the Conservatives, with both well ahead of other opposition parties NDP (9%), Bloc (6%), and Greens (2%).

What’s interesting about this poll is what it tells us about vote intentions by geography. Liberal support is strongest in Eastern Canada (QC, ON, Atlantic provinces), while Conservative support is strongest in the Prairies. Notably NDP support peaks in both the Prairies and BC (where provincial NDP parties are particularly strong).

As we barrel towards Election Day, I’ll be sure to drop another polling update towards the end of the week.